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Small Business Optimism Drops Sharply as Economic Uncertainty Grows

The NFIB reports the largest decline in small business expansion sentiment in five years, driven by trade policy confusion and inflation concerns.

Shipping containers are seen at the Atlantic Hub container terminal in Halifax on Monday, Feb. 3, 2025.
Children hold ice cream near a food truck vendor at the National Mall in Washington, D.C., U.S., August 12, 2024. REUTERS/Kaylee Greenlee Beal/File Photo
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Overview

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.1 points in February, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and erasing post-2020 gains.
  • Economic uncertainty among small businesses reached its second-highest level since 1973, according to the NFIB's Uncertainty Index.
  • The percentage of small business owners considering it a good time to expand dropped to 12%, the steepest monthly decline since April 2020.
  • Businesses are raising prices at the fastest rate in four years, as inflation fears grow and trade policy volatility disrupts planning.
  • Stock markets, consumer confidence, and consumer spending have also declined, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all experiencing significant downturns over the past month.