Overview
- Tropical Storm Melissa holds near 50 mph winds as it creeps north-northwest in the central Caribbean several hundred miles south of Jamaica and Haiti, according to the National Hurricane Center.
- A hurricane watch is posted for Jamaica and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and Jamaica is under a tropical storm warning as conditions deteriorate into Friday and Saturday.
- Forecasters expect 5 to 10 inches of rain across southern Haiti, the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica with locally higher totals, raising risks of flash flooding and landslides.
- Little change in strength is expected through Thursday, then rapid intensification is likely over very warm Caribbean waters with Melissa forecast to become a hurricane this weekend and potentially a major hurricane by early next week.
- Model guidance diverges on the longer-range track and any U.S. effects remain uncertain, and the NHC advises residents in threatened areas to complete preparations immediately.