Overview

• The OECD now sees global growth at 3.2%, only slightly below pre‑tariff forecasts, and a broad trade war did not materialize.
• U.S. activity remains resilient with second‑quarter GDP revised to 3.8% and a Fed rate cut after labor weakening, while private forecasts cited in Brazilian media peg 2025 growth near 1.8% with inflation risks from tariff pass‑through.
• China’s exports to the U.S. fell by more than 30% but were largely redirected to Asia, Latin America and Africa, and the OECD projects Chinese growth near 4.9% supported by fiscal spending.
• Brazil absorbed a heavy hit to roughly half of tariff‑exposed shipments as sectors such as footwear and wood reported losses, and export profitability fell 7.7% in August, yet overall exports rose as sales were redirected.
• A weaker dollar, lower U.S. rates, stable commodities and cheaper oil cushioned emerging markets, investors added to Brazilian assets while calling for fiscal catalysts, and BNDES received over R$5 billion in aid requests from affected firms.