Overview
- SIPRI reports that as of January 2026 Russia held about 5,420 warheads overall with 1,796 warheads deployed on launchers, the highest deployed total since 2017.
- The institute estimates roughly 12,187 warheads worldwide and about 4,012 deployed on missiles and at bomber bases, a year‑on‑year rise in operational stocks despite ongoing dismantlement of retired weapons.
- New START expired in February 2026 and was not replaced, removing a key bilateral transparency mechanism and making external verification of U.S. and Russian strategic deployments harder.
- SIPRI documents continuing modernization and new deployments—including Russia’s reported use of Oreshnik-capable systems in Belarus and growing Chinese missile forces—which keep more warheads tied to launchers even as some programs face delays.
- Analysts warn the change matters for people near flashpoints because more deployed warheads, looser doctrine and reduced transparency make fast escalation likelier and complicate crisis management between nuclear-armed states.