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Singapore Raises 2025 GDP Forecast to 1.5%–2.5% After Export-Led H1 Surge

MTI warns second-half growth will decelerate with front-loading benefits set to fade under ongoing US tariff uncertainty.

A view of the skyline in Singapore September 17, 2024. REUTERS/Caroline Chia/File Photo
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Overview

  • Singapore’s economy expanded by 4.3% in the first half of 2025, including quarterly gains of 4.1% in Q1 and 4.4% in Q2, driven largely by export-oriented sectors.
  • Companies accelerated shipments ahead of looming US reciprocal tariffs, pushing export growth to about 5.2% in H1—well above Enterprise Singapore’s 1%–3% projection.
  • MTI upgraded its full-year GDP forecast to 1.5%–2.5%, up from 0%–2% set in April.
  • Officials warn that the front-loading boost will wane in the second half and that the economy faces downside risks from potential sectoral duties on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors and from global financial shocks.
  • Transport engineering and precision engineering clusters stand out as bright spots, benefiting from higher-value aircraft maintenance and increased AI-related semiconductor investments.