Overview
- MTI raised the 2025 GDP forecast to around 4.0%, up from 1.5%–2.5%, following the Nov 21 data release.
- Q3 GDP grew 4.2% year on year versus a 2.9% advance estimate, with 2.4% quarter‑on‑quarter seasonally adjusted growth.
- MTI issued a first 2026 projection of 1%–3% as key partners are expected to cool, pointing to a slower pace for trade‑related sectors.
- Manufacturing, wholesale trade, and finance led the Q3 outperformance, with electronics lifted by demand for AI‑related semiconductors and servers.
- Exports strengthened with October NODX up 22.2% year on year, while tariff risks persist despite a U.S.–China truce extension, delayed sectoral levies, and a branded‑drugs tariff implementation pause.