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Singapore Inflation Cools to Four-Year Low as Australia’s Headline CPI Ticks Up

One-off energy rebate effects are skewing headline gauges, complicating timing of rate cuts.

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A shopper walks past fruit on sale at a fruit and vegetable market in Sydney, Australia, June 20, 2017. Picture taken June 20, 2017. REUTERS/David Gray/File Photo
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Overview

  • Singapore’s core CPI fell to 0.3% year over year in August, the lowest since February 2021, with headline inflation easing to 0.5%.
  • MAS and MTI kept their 2025 projection for both core and overall inflation at 0.5% to 1.5%.
  • Australia’s monthly CPI rose to 3.0% year over year in August, while the RBA‑preferred trimmed mean eased to 2.6% as the ABS highlighted the impact of expiring electricity rebates on measured costs.
  • Markets priced out a September RBA cut after the data, with the Australian dollar edging higher and short‑dated bond futures slipping, and the focus shifting to quarterly figures before November.
  • Analysts said a November easing remains possible, though NAB now expects the next RBA cut in May 2026, and US forecasts for August core PCE near 2.9% signal persistent inflation pressures globally.