Overview

• Combined Mexican-U.S. operations have deepened splits in the Cartel de Sinaloa, triggering spikes in internecine violence and territorial losses.
• The CJNG has expanded into former Sinaloa strongholds from Chiapas to Jalisco, leveraging the internal feud between ‘Los Chapitos’ and ‘La Mayiza’ to gain ground.
• Federal forces have redirected resources to target CJNG activities in a bid to prevent its opportunistic encroachment into Sinaloa-controlled territories.
• Specialists warn that measurable declines in cartel revenues and nationwide violence may not appear for another one to two years despite early signs of weakening.
• Absent a unifying leadership figure, factions within the cartel risk solidifying into separate organizations, leaving the future power balance in doubt.