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Simulations Predict Roman Telescope Will Record About 100,000 Cosmic Explosions

Final simulations forecast unprecedented yields of supernovae and rare transients in the survey; teams are preparing machine-learning pipelines for the 2027 launch.

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Overview

  • Recent models indicate the High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey will detect roughly 27,000 Type Ia supernovae, about ten times more than all previous surveys combined.
  • The telescope is expected to capture around 60,000 core-collapse supernovae alongside hundreds of rarer blasts, including superluminous supernovae, tidal disruption events and kilonovae.
  • Researchers predict Roman could confirm more than ten pair-instability supernovae from the universe’s first stars, providing direct evidence of primordial stellar deaths.
  • Over two years, the survey will scan the same sky region every five days to create time-series movies of cosmic explosions that will refine measurements of dark energy and the universe’s expansion.
  • Scientists are finalizing machine-learning classification pipelines to sift Roman’s vast data stream and distinguish among diverse transient phenomena.