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last mo.

Simulation Revises Milky Way–Andromeda Collision Odds to 50-50 over 10 Billion Years

Gaia measurements alongside Hubble data plus the tug of the Large Magellanic Cloud cast the Milky Way’s future merger as a coin flip with outcomes still unclear.

Image: NASA/JPL-Caltech
There's no place like home: Our Milky Way may be spared
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Overview

  • The new simulation, incorporating Gaia and Hubble observations, adjusts the predicted Milky Way–Andromeda collision window from within 5 billion years to a 50% chance over the next 10 billion years.
  • Factoring in the gravitational pull of the Large Magellanic Cloud decreases the likelihood of a Milky Way–Andromeda merger by altering the Milky Way’s path.
  • Lingering uncertainties in galaxy positions, motions and mass measurements create a wide range of possible outcomes for the Local Group’s evolution.
  • The same models indicate a near-certain collision between the Milky Way and the Large Magellanic Cloud in about 2 billion years.
  • Researchers say forthcoming data releases from ESA’s Gaia mission should help refine these long-term galactic forecasts.