Overview
- India’s MCX March 2026 silver futures fell by as much as Rs 10,000–12,500 intraday, with contracts briefly touching Rs 2,40,605 per kg as passive funds unwound positions tied to the Bloomberg Commodity Index’s annual reweighting and a firmer dollar.
- Internationally, silver traded around $76–$78 per ounce after a 2.6%–3.8% drop in the prior session, with traders cautious ahead of key US jobs data that could influence rate-cut expectations and precious-metals flows.
- Goldman Sachs said extreme two-way swings are likely to persist due to thin London inventories, large holdings in US COMEX vaults, and new Chinese export approvals that risk fragmenting supply, with tariff uncertainty potentially keeping metal stranded in the US.
- HSBC expects support into the first half of 2026 before a meaningful second-half correction, raising its 2026 average price forecast to $68.25 per ounce within a $58–$88 range as deficits narrow, recycling rises, and industrial demand shows signs of fatigue.
- Physical tightness remains visible as Singapore dealers report months-long waitlists and industry now accounts for roughly 60% of demand, even as silver’s outperformance vs gold drives the gold-to-silver ratio near a decade low around 57 after December’s $83.60 peak.