Overview

• The Siena survey of 802 registered voters conducted Sept. 8–10 shows Hochul ahead 52% to 27% in a hypothetical 2026 matchup, with a margin of error of ±4.2 points.
• Hochul’s favorability is 45% to 42% negative, her best since January 2024, and her job approval rose to 54%, the highest in more than two years.
• It is the first Siena head-to-head where Hochul tops 50%, aided by a swing among independents from a slight August edge for Stefanik to an 18-point advantage for Hochul.
• Voters report improved or stable views on crime compared with December, and they oppose a presidential National Guard deployment to New York City by 57% to 37%.
• Trump’s ratings in New York are deeply negative and 63% say his signature spending bill threatens necessary health care programs, while Stefanik has not declared a run and a senior adviser dismissed the poll as unreliable.