Overview

• The dollar index climbed as high as 98.93, its strongest since early August, following safe‑haven demand after President Trump threatened mass firings during the shutdown standoff.
• The U.S. currency advanced to about ¥152.64, the firmest since Feb. 14, as traders assessed potential stimulus under Japan’s incoming leader Sanae Takaichi.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 50 basis points and flagged the prospect of more easing, knocking the kiwi down roughly 1% to around $0.5739.
• Gold breached $4,000 per ounce as investors shifted toward defensive assets.
• Futures implied about a 94.6% chance of a 25‑basis‑point Fed cut this month, while Polymarket put the odds of the shutdown ending within a week near 25–26%.