Overview

• With nearly all Bureau of Labor Statistics staff furloughed, the September CPI-W release scheduled for Oct. 15 may be postponed, pushing back the 2026 COLA announcement.
• Independent estimates point to a 2.7%–2.8% adjustment, which would add roughly $54 a month to the average retirement benefit if confirmed.
• Medicare trustees project the standard Part B premium to rise about 11.6% to $206.50, potentially eroding beneficiaries’ net increase.
• The Social Security Administration reports reduced staffing, slowing nonpayment services such as verifications, card replacements and overpayment processing.
• There is precedent for a delay, as the 2013 shutdown postponed the CPI release and the COLA announcement until later in October.