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2h ago

Shutdown Threat Would Stall Jobs and Inflation Data, Limiting Fed’s View

A funding lapse starting Oct. 1 would pause official statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving policymakers with thinner evidence ahead of their next rate decision.

If there is no deal for more funding, then much of the government’s vast bureaucracy will shut down right after midnight on Wednesday.
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Overview

  • Without a funding deal, a government shutdown would begin just after midnight on Oct. 1.
  • A Labor Department contingency plan indicates BLS would cease data collection and releases, delaying the jobs report and potentially CPI and PPI.
  • Nomura says the Federal Reserve may have to lean on its existing projections with fewer fresh readings before its Oct. 28–29 meeting.
  • Private indicators from ADP and the Institute for Supply Management will still be published this week, offering only partial substitutes for official data.
  • The White House instructed agencies to prepare layoff plans, and Bank of America says brief shutdowns are usually modest in impact but warns a prolonged lapse could cause more lasting harm.