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3h ago

Shutdown Risk Climbs With Four Days Left as Senate Stalls and OMB Pushes Layoff Planning

Prediction markets now see a likely lapse, with the Senate’s 60‑vote barrier plus a House recess leaving little time for a deal.

President Donald Trump is trying to keep the pressure on Senate Democrats, as the Republican majority needs their votes to avert a government shutdown next week.
The Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2025, with just days to go before federal money runs out with the end of the fiscal year on Tuesday, Sept. 30. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
As lawmakers debate a government funding extension, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., awaits the arrival of the leader of the Orthodox Christian Church, Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew for a meeting, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
The U.S. Capitol building in Washington, D.C.

Overview

  • The House passed a GOP short‑term funding bill, but it is stalled in the Senate where any measure needs 60 votes and Democrats are seeking health‑care provisions and limits on rescissions.
  • The White House budget office directed agencies to prepare reduction‑in‑force plans tied to a lapse, a break from past practice that drew rebukes from Senate leaders including Chuck Schumer and Republican Susan Collins.
  • President Donald Trump canceled a meeting with Democratic leaders this week and signaled no compromise, while the House is not scheduled to return until Oct. 1.
  • A shutdown would furlough or leave unpaid hundreds of thousands of federal employees, disrupt contractors, and likely delay key economic reports such as the October jobs release, though mandatory programs continue.
  • Odds makers now price the chance of a shutdown at roughly two‑thirds, and states such as Massachusetts have ordered agencies to map payroll and grant contingencies.