Overview

• BLS has furloughed staff and suspended data collection and releases, placing the September inflation report and the Oct. 15 CPI publication in limbo.
• The Social Security formula requires the July–September CPI‑W average versus a year earlier, and the missing September reading blocks finalization.
• The Labor Department’s contingency plan notes that a delayed CPI release could affect the timing of the SSA announcement.
• Economists currently estimate a 2026 increase of about 2.7%–2.8%, which remains provisional until the official CPI‑W is published.
• Payments will continue on time and any adjustment would still begin with January checks, yet nearly 22 million seniors who rely solely on Social Security face near‑term uncertainty.