Overview
- The BLS has furloughed nearly all staff and paused scheduled releases, delaying the September CPI‑W that determines the COLA.
- The mid‑October COLA announcement is now likely postponed, with the only prior delay occurring during the 2013 shutdown.
- Monthly Social Security payments will continue on schedule, and the COLA will still be applied with January benefits once data are released.
- Partial data point to an estimated 2.7%–2.8% increase, but the exact percentage remains provisional without the September reading.
- The delayed CPI also holds up 2026 settings such as the earnings test limits and taxable wage base, and rising Medicare premiums could erode net gains for many beneficiaries.