Overview

• Furloughs at the Bureau of Labor Statistics during the federal shutdown could postpone release of September CPI-W data required to set the 2026 COLA.
• The Social Security Administration had planned to unveil the COLA on Oct. 15, the same day the BLS was set to publish September inflation data.
• Independent estimates from The Senior Citizens League suggest a roughly 2.7% increase, which would add about $54 to the average retired worker’s monthly benefit.
• An analyst noted the September inflation data was already collected, yet a shutdown could still delay the public announcement.
• The SSA did not comment on potential timing, and the only prior delay to a COLA announcement occurred in October 2013.