Overview

• The Social Security Administration’s plan to announce the 2026 cost‑of‑living adjustment on October 15 depends on the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishing September inflation data.
• With most BLS staff furloughed, the agency has warned that key economic reports could be delayed, jeopardizing the COLA timetable.
• Independent forecasts, including from The Senior Citizens League, point to about a 2.7% increase, roughly $54 more per month for the average retired worker.
• More than 70 million beneficiaries are waiting for the update that will guide 2026 payments across retirement, survivor, SSI, and SSDI programs.
• Benefit checks are still being delivered during the shutdown, and a 2013 shutdown provides precedent for a delayed COLA notice, with BLS to update its release calendar once funding returns.