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6d ago

Shutdown Pushes Inflation Report to Oct. 24, Delaying Social Security’s 2026 COLA Announcement

Reduced staffing leaves the agency on a tight clock, with a modest increase likely to be offset by higher Medicare premiums.

A Social Security Administration (SSA) office in Washington, DC, March 26, 2025. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reportedly aiming to reform and downsize the SSA with office closures, cutbacks on phone services and new rules requiring in-person visits for some prospective beneficiaries to register. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)
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Overview

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics rescheduled the September CPI release to Oct. 24, which moved the Social Security Administration’s COLA announcement to the same date.
  • Social Security must use the third‑quarter average of the CPI‑W to set the 2026 adjustment, so the delayed data prevents finalizing the increase until the figures post.
  • Independent estimates point to a roughly 2.6%–2.9% COLA, including a 2.7% projection from The Senior Citizens League and a 2.8% forecast from analyst Mary Johnson.
  • The Medicare Trustees project the standard Part B premium to rise to about $206.50 in 2026, a jump that could absorb much of a modest COLA for many beneficiaries.
  • SSA’s reduced workforce, including reported double‑digit staffing cuts, raises operational risks for processing the late data and implementing changes on time, though benefits continue to be paid.