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3h ago

Shutdown Odds Near 60% Put U.S. Crypto Policy and Markets Under Strain

Prediction platforms signal a likely funding lapse, raising the prospect of deferred SEC actions alongside postponed Senate markups on market structure.

State of crypto: shutdown watch
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Overview

  • President Trump is set to meet key members of Congress on Monday after canceling a session earlier in the week, and House leaders may wait for the Senate to act before reconvening, according to Punchbowl News.
  • Polymarket priced a 60% chance of a shutdown by Oct. 1, down from 70% a day earlier, while Kalshi showed 58% by Wednesday, with more than $2 million wagered on Polymarket.
  • Bitcoin fell roughly 6% to about $96,500 and Ethereum nearly 10% to around $3,511 in a 24‑hour span late last week, erasing over $140 billion in crypto market value before partial rebounds.
  • The Senate Banking Committee moved a planned Sept. 30 markup to late October and the Senate Agriculture Committee has not released draft text, with industry groups warning a shutdown would push broader progress into next year.
  • A lapse in funding would leave the SEC operating with about 10% of staff focused on essential work, likely delaying non‑critical decisions such as ETF applications, even as an SEC–CFTC roundtable was scheduled for Sept. 29.