Overview
- The government’s 30-day shutdown on Thursday blocked the release of third-quarter GDP and has halted a broad slate of reports on jobs, trade, and retail sales.
- With official statistics unavailable, forecasters are leaning on private proxies that conflict, with surveyed economists near 2.8% Q3 growth versus the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow at 3.9%.
- The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point and flagged greater uncertainty from the data lapse, as Chair Jerome H. Powell said conditions argue for caution and officials remained divided.
- Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan warned the prolonged stoppage is slowing deals and regulatory approvals and could foster a consumer spending malaise, a risk echoed by economists such as Mark Zandi.
- Hundreds of thousands of federal workers have missed pay and 42 million face risks to nutrition benefits, while the CBO estimates the shutdown could cost the economy up to $14 billion.