Overview

• With BLS staff furloughed, the government delayed the September employment report and other releases, marking the first postponed jobs day since 2013 as up to roughly 750,000 federal workers could be sidelined daily.
• Private gauges signaled stalled hiring: ADP estimated a 32,000 drop in private payrolls for September and revised August to a 3,000 decline, with losses spanning construction, manufacturing, finance, leisure and professional services.
• The Chicago Fed’s real-time model put unemployment near 4.3% for September, roughly unchanged from August, while Goldman Sachs estimated initial jobless claims at about 224,000—historically low—pointing to a low-hire, low-fire environment.
• Other snapshots were mixed: ISM reported services activity flat and its employment measure contracting for a fourth month; Challenger tracked fewer planned layoffs but hiring plans at multi-year lows; Intuit’s data showed very small firms shed over 48,000 jobs.
• Alternative trackers diverged on hiring levels—Revelio estimated roughly 60,000 jobs added and modeled a weaker official print, while Homebase suggested a stronger gain—leaving policymakers to parse uneven signals ahead of the Oct. 28–29 Fed meeting and facing possible CPI delays if the shutdown continues.