Overview

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release the September employment report on Friday because its operations are paused during the federal government shutdown.
• Roughly 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day under the lapse in funding, and other releases such as weekly jobless claims and factory orders were also delayed.
• Substitute gauges suggest stalled conditions: ADP reported a 32,000 drop in private payrolls and the Chicago Fed’s real-time estimate held unemployment around 4.34%, while Goldman Sachs pegged new claims at 224,000.
• Additional signals are mixed but subdued, with ISM services activity flat and its jobs measure still contracting, Challenger noting fewer layoffs but the weakest September hiring plans since 2011, and small-business data showing soft demand for workers.
• The absence of official data complicates the Federal Reserve’s October 28–29 decision and risks deepening uncertainty if the shutdown also postpones the October 15 consumer price report.