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1h ago

Shutdown Halts September Jobs Report as Alternative Data Signal a Cooler Labor Market

The blackout forces reliance on noisier private indicators, raising uncertainty for the Fed's next move.

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A "Now Hiring" sign hangs in the window of a hair salon in the Greater Boston town of Medford, Massachusetts, U.S., August 12, 2025. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during a news conference at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 17, 2025.
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Overview

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended data collection and releases, delaying the September nonfarm payrolls report and other publications as more than 2,000 staff are furloughed.
  • Private gauges point to softness: ADP estimated a 32,000 private‑sector job loss in September, the Chicago Fed pegged unemployment near 4.34% with a lower hiring rate, and Intuit data showed very small firms shed over 48,000 jobs.
  • Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 54,064 announced cuts in September, down 37% from August, yet year‑to‑date layoffs reached 946,426 and hiring plans totaled about 205,000, the weakest since 2009.
  • With official data on hold, traders have leaned on substitutes and are pricing a near‑certain quarter‑point Fed rate cut this month, according to CME FedWatch and market commentary.
  • If the shutdown persists, additional releases such as the October 15 Consumer Price Index could be delayed, and politicians including Sen. Elizabeth Warren are pressing President Trump to release the jobs data.