Overview

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended data collection and releases, postponing the September employment report until funding is restored, the acting commissioner said.
• By day three, the shutdown had already delayed jobless claims and other releases, and a prolonged lapse could also push back mid‑October inflation reports.
• Alternative readings show strain: ADP reported a 32,000 private‑payroll decline, the Chicago Fed estimated 4.34% unemployment with a lower hiring rate, and Intuit found small firms cut about 48,000 jobs.
• Challenger tallied 946,426 announced job cuts so far this year and the weakest 2025 hiring plans since 2009, even as private forecasts diverge on September payrolls with LSEG/FactSet near a 50,000 gain.
• With a late‑October policy meeting ahead, the Federal Reserve and markets are unusually dependent on non‑government indicators and commentary; historically, delayed BLS reports were published shortly after shutdowns ended.