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1h ago

Shutdown Freezes Official U.S. Data as Private Reads Signal Stalling September Hiring

Economists warn the blackout leaves the Fed with less guidance ahead of its Oct. 29 policy decision.

The U.S. Department of Labor is seen on August 29, 2025 in Washington, D.C. The large portrait of Trump is part of a pro-American display that has appeared at the U.S. Department of Labor ahead of Labor Day weekend. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Sipa USA)(Sipa via AP Images)
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Overview

  • The Labor Department, BLS, BEA and Census have paused scheduled releases, including the September jobs and upcoming inflation reports.
  • ADP reported private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, pointing to a weakening labor market.
  • Revelio Labs estimated about 60,000 jobs were added, largely in education and health care and concentrated in California, New York and Massachusetts.
  • Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said averaging the private estimates indicates essentially no net job growth last month.
  • Zandi estimated each week of a shutdown shaves about 0.1 percentage point from annualized quarterly GDP growth, and the BLS is expected to publish delayed reports once funding resumes.