Overview

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish the September employment report and has paused other releases during the federal funding lapse.
• ADP estimated private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, with losses in construction, manufacturing and finance, and gains concentrated in health care, education and information.
• The Chicago Fed’s real-time model estimated the national unemployment rate at about 4.3% for September, roughly unchanged from August.
• Goldman Sachs’ read of state claims put new unemployment filings near 224,000, a historically low level, while ISM said services-sector hiring remained in contraction.
• The data blackout is complicating the Federal Reserve’s late-October policy call and stoking scrutiny of labor statistics after the BLS chief’s firing and demands to release already collected figures.