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49m ago

Shutdown Freezes Official Data as Private Reports Point to Near‑Zero Job Growth

The data vacuum forces the Fed to consider its late‑October rate move without the BLS reports it relies on.

The logo of the Carlyle Group is displayed at the company's office in Tokyo, Japan October 17, 2018. REUTERS/Issei Kato
A “Help Wanted” sign hangs in restaurant window in Medford, Massachusetts, U.S., January 25, 2023. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo
Image
The U.S. Department of Labor is seen on August 29, 2025 in Washington, D.C. The large portrait of Trump is part of a pro-American display that has appeared at the U.S. Department of Labor ahead of Labor Day weekend. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Sipa USA)(Sipa via AP Images)

Overview

  • With the shutdown in its second week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has halted operations and delayed the September jobs report, and the BEA and Census Bureau have paused other releases that could postpone inflation and retail figures.
  • Private gauges offer divergent but weak signals for September payrolls, with ADP showing −32,000 jobs, Revelio Labs about +60,000, and Carlyle estimating +17,000, leading Moody’s Mark Zandi to conclude there was essentially no job growth.
  • Fed officials warn the blackout complicates policy deliberations for the Oct. 29 meeting, even as markets still price a high probability of a quarter‑point rate cut based on soft labor indicators.
  • Regional strain is emerging in data still available, including sharp increases in initial jobless claims in North Dakota (+85%) and Texas (+44%) and 54,000 announced cuts in September reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
  • Economists estimate each week of a shutdown reduces annualized real GDP growth by roughly 0.1 percentage point, and prolonged survey stoppages risk degrading the quality of forthcoming government statistics.