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1h ago

Shutdown Fight Over ACA Subsidies Collides With Poll Showing Broad Support for Extension

Analysts warn premiums could more than double next year for marketplace customers if Congress lets the credits lapse.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., center, flanked by Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., left, and Rep. Katherine Clark, D-Mass., arrives to speak on the steps of the Capitol to insist that Republicans include an extension of expiring health care benefits as part of a government funding compromise, in Washington, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
House Democrats prepare to speak on the steps of the Capitol to insist that Republicans include an extension of expiring health care benefits as part of a government funding compromise, in Washington, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
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Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., and GOP leaders, from left, Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Mich., Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., blame the government shutdown on Democrats during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Overview

  • Congress remains at an impasse on day three of the shutdown as Democrats refuse a GOP stopgap without action on enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits and Republican leaders push a clean funding bill.
  • KFF’s late‑September poll finds 78% of U.S. adults want the credits extended, including 59% of Republicans and 57% of MAGA supporters, while about six in ten adults say they have heard little or nothing about the pending expiration.
  • KFF estimates subsidized enrollees’ average annual premiums would jump 114% from $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026 if the credits expire, and the Congressional Budget Office projects roughly 4 million could lose coverage next year.
  • Insurers are preparing sizable 2026 rate hikes in Ohio as uncertainty persists, with filings ranging from 2.5% to 42% and large carriers such as Centene proposing 25%–28% increases; state regulators face mid‑October deadlines ahead of Nov. 1 open enrollment.
  • Political risk is rising for Republicans as the poll shows more supporters of extending the credits would blame President Trump or the GOP if they lapse, and news reports say some White House advisers have privately discussed proposals to continue the subsidies.