Overview

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish the September employment and unemployment data scheduled for Oct. 3 because the government is shut down, with roughly 750,000 federal workers furloughed.
• A new Chicago Fed model estimated the September jobless rate at 4.3%, matching August and signaling a labor market that has cooled without a sharp break.
• ADP reported a 32,000 drop in private payrolls for September, while Intuit’s QuickBooks sample showed small firms shed more than 48,000 jobs, about 0.4%.
• Challenger, Gray & Christmas said 2025 hiring plans are the lowest since 2009 and year‑to‑date announced job cuts have reached the highest since 2020.
• With a key benchmark missing before the Oct. 28–29 FOMC meeting, markets are leaning on noisier indicators, and more releases such as CPI and weekly jobless claims could be delayed if the shutdown persists.