Overview
- BEA data show headline and core PCE both at 2.8% year over year in September, with monthly gains of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively after a weeks-long release delay from the shutdown.
- Consumer spending rose 0.3% in September but was essentially flat after inflation, signaling softer household demand following stronger summer outlays.
- Futures markets now largely price a 25-basis-point cut next week, with CME FedWatch readings cited around the high‑80% range as stocks edged higher after the release.
- Recent labor signals remained cautious, including a 32,000 decline in private payrolls reported by ADP for November, heightening attention on employment risks.
- Category details pointed to uneven price pressures tied to tariffs and goods costs, while University of Michigan sentiment ticked up to 53.3 but remained historically weak.