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Shutdown-Delayed Data Blitz Poised to Jolt Fed Outlook and Markets

A concentrated run of economic reports will steer rate‑cut bets heading into 2026.

Overview

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish combined October–November payrolls on Tuesday, but it will not provide an October unemployment rate due to shutdown disruptions.
  • November consumer price data arrive Thursday after the agency canceled October’s CPI because it could not retroactively collect prices, with retail sales and weekly jobless claims also due Dec. 16–18.
  • The Federal Reserve delivered a quarter‑point cut last week as Chair Jerome Powell warned inflation remains elevated and the labor market is cooling.
  • Bond traders are leaning toward two rate cuts next year—more than the Fed has signaled—and have built positions that would benefit if an earlier move is priced in.
  • Forecasts point to subdued job gains and a November jobless rate near 4.4%, and analysts warn the unusual data structure could inject volatility into Treasuries and the S&P 500 this week.