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Shutdown Deal Leaves ACA Subsidy Extension Unsettled as 2026 Premiums Rise

The agreement grants only a December vote on the enhanced tax credits, extending uncertainty for millions shopping during open enrollment.

Overview

  • Senators advanced a bipartisan plan to reopen the government through Jan. 30 without extending the expiring enhanced ACA premium tax credits, committing only to a mid‑December vote on the issue.
  • KFF estimates that about 22 million subsidized enrollees could see their monthly payments more than double in 2026, averaging $1,016 more, while insurers have filed roughly 26% average premium increases for next year.
  • The Congressional Budget Office projects that allowing the enhanced credits to lapse would leave about 4 million more people uninsured by 2034 and says extending them would cost roughly $35 billion per year.
  • Shares of ACA-focused insurers fell between 1.5% and 7% after President Donald Trump urged redirecting subsidy funds directly to individuals, while Republican alternatives such as pre-funded accounts remain proposals rather than enacted policy.
  • Analysts say the impact would be greatest in Republican-leaning Southern states where more than half of marketplace enrollees live, and state data like Colorado’s show net premium increases exceeding 100% without the enhanced credits as healthier consumers consider dropping coverage.