Overview
- With government releases on hold, traders this week are leaning on ADP payrolls, ISM readings, Redbook retail sales, and Challenger layoff figures for clues on growth and employment.
- Economists caution that private surveys have lower reliability in the current environment, with UBS’s Paul Donovan warning they could receive unwarranted credibility in the absence of official data.
- Market pricing for a December Federal Reserve cut has eased to about a 69% probability from 90% a week earlier, reflecting recent hawkish signals from Chair Jerome Powell and contrasting calls for more easing by Governor Christopher Waller.
- Deutsche Bank projects an ADP private payrolls rebound of roughly 50,000 for October versus a prior 32,000 decline, exceeding a consensus near 25,000–30,000, though analysts stress the figures may be noisy.
- Fresh signs of slower Chinese factory activity in October are pressuring risk appetite, adding an external headwind as investors parse fragmentary U.S. data.