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2h ago

Shutdown Data Freeze Puts Fed’s October Rate Cut Path in Doubt

The missing jobs report forces a decision with incomplete evidence.

The fed's next move on oct. 29: how a scenario few expect could derail u.s. stocks and crypto
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Overview

  • The Oct. 1 partial shutdown has furloughed Bureau of Labor Statistics staff and indefinitely delayed the September employment report.
  • Traders still assign roughly 96% odds to a 25-basis-point cut at the Oct. 28–29 FOMC meeting, with only a small chance of no change, according to CME FedWatch.
  • Federal Reserve operations proceed normally given independent funding, with Chair Jerome Powell and several officials scheduled to speak and meeting minutes due this week.
  • Risk assets and havens hover near records, including bitcoin around $123,000, gold near $3,886 per ounce, and record closes for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones.
  • Private indicators such as ADP and ISM offer partial signals, and analysts warn a pause is a realistic risk that could jolt markets, with a potential jobs-report release still possible if the shutdown ends soon.