Overview

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended data collection and releases during the shutdown, delaying the September jobs report and upcoming inflation measures, with BEA and the Census Bureau also pausing publications.
• Private estimates diverge but skew weak: ADP shows a 32,000 drop in private payrolls, Carlyle pegs job gains at 17,000, and Revelio Labs estimates roughly 60,000, which Moody’s Mark Zandi says averages to essentially no net growth.
• Market pricing still leans toward a quarter‑point Fed cut on Oct. 29, yet bond desks are actively hedging for a wider range of outcomes, including a skip or a larger move, given the lack of official data.
• Fed officials and economists say the blackout complicates policy judgments as the labor market cools and inflation signals remain mixed, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cautioning against front‑loading cuts without evidence.
• Stocks remain near record levels even as alternative indicators—from ISM services employment to consumer surveys—flag softer hiring conditions, reinforcing the disconnect between financial markets and real‑economy signals.