Overview

• The second week of the government shutdown has suspended BLS operations, delaying the September jobs report and putting inflation, BEA and Census releases at risk.
• Carlyle’s shadow dataset estimates just 17,000 jobs added in September, while ADP shows a 32,000 private-job loss and Revelio estimates roughly 60,000 gains, indicating essentially no net growth.
• Initial unemployment claims edged up to a seasonally adjusted 224,269 for the week ended Sept. 27, Haver Analytics reported, reflecting low layoffs but stagnant hiring.
• Traders are pricing a near 95% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the late-October Fed meeting as officials operate without BLS benchmarks.
• Economists caution that the data blackout heightens uncertainty and could obscure worsening conditions, with stress noted at smaller firms and in energy-heavy regions.