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Shutdown Chances Climb as OMB Orders Layoff Planning and Senate Stalemate Deepens

The Senate remains deadlocked over Democrats’ health-care demands versus a clean GOP extension.

Overview

  • Federal funding expires Sept. 30/Oct. 1, and neither party’s stopgap has cleared the Senate’s 60‑vote threshold after both proposals failed last week.
  • The White House budget office directed agencies to prepare reduction‑in‑force notices if funding lapses, a move Democrats called intimidation and some Republicans criticized.
  • President Donald Trump canceled a meeting with Democratic leaders, as Republicans push a short-term extension to Nov. 21 and Democrats seek to extend ACA subsidies and reverse Medicaid cuts.
  • States and localities, including Massachusetts, are preparing for payroll and federal grant disruptions and advising agencies to plan for potential service impacts.
  • A shutdown could furlough or leave unpaid hundreds of thousands of workers, delay key economic data such as the jobs report, and close parks, with betting markets putting the odds near two-thirds to 70%.