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Short Thunderstorm Break in Germany as Models Warn Heat Dome Could Return

A possible rebuild of a high‑pressure heat dome could drive daytime temperatures into the mid‑30s and raise health and wildfire risks.

Overview

  • The German weather service has active warnings for Sunday for isolated thunderstorms with gusts up to about 70 km/h and locally heavy rain of roughly 15 litres per square metre in an hour.
  • Germany is in a brief cool, unsettled phase now with daytime highs near seasonal norms but forecasts show temperatures rising day by day into next week.
  • European ensemble runs, notably ECMWF, project a rebuilding Azores‑high from around July 7 that in some runs pushes highs toward 35–40°C, though projections differ between models.
  • Forecasters stress substantial uncertainty about a prolonged heatwave and one leading meteorologist described the chance of a longer event as roughly fifty‑fifty.
  • Dry soils after weeks without rain could strengthen near‑surface heating and raise wildfire danger in the southwest while U.S. forecasts separately show a very large heat dome affecting tens to hundreds of millions.