Overview
- Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeated Jack Ciattarelli by roughly 13 points and flipped five Trump 2024 counties: Morris, Passaic, Atlantic, Cumberland, and Gloucester.
- In the flipped counties, about 115,000 more votes were cast than in 2021, including roughly 93,400 additional Democratic votes compared with about 21,600 more Republican votes, in a state with a large Democratic registration edge.
- Exit polls and voter-file analyses indicate Democrats won over a modest share of Trump’s 2024 supporters, with estimates showing about 7 percent of his backers switching sides.
- Sherrill regained ground with Hispanic voters, reportedly winning 18 percent of Trump’s Hispanic supporters and carrying Hispanics by about 37 points, with notable gains in heavily Hispanic Passaic County.
- Anti-Trump sentiment was a major motivator, with about 40 percent saying they voted to oppose him as Sherrill narrowly carried independents and took roughly 57 percent across South Jersey.