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4h ago

Sherrill’s 13-Point New Jersey Win Fueled by Turnout Surge and Trump Voter Flips

Analysts credit the margin to higher Democratic turnout alongside defections from some 2024 Trump voters.

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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - NOVEMBER 04: Voters wait in line to enter a polling place still decorated for Day of the Dead (Dia de los Muertos) festivities on November 04, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. California voters are deciding whether to approve Proposition 50, a measure that would replace the state’s current congressional district map with new, legislature-drawn lines from 2026 through 2030. The proposition was put forward as a response to Republican-controlled states redrawing their own maps to create an electoral advantage in the 2026 midterms. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Overview

  • Mikie Sherrill defeated Jack Ciattarelli by about 13 points statewide and carried five counties that Trump won in 2024: Morris, Passaic, Atlantic, Cumberland, and Gloucester.
  • Turnout in the flipped counties rose by roughly 115,000 votes versus 2021, including about 93,400 additional Democratic votes compared with 21,600 more Republican votes.
  • Exit polls reported that Sherrill won about 18% of Trump’s Hispanic supporters in New Jersey and carried Hispanic voters by roughly 37 points.
  • Voters citing Trump as a factor broke strongly against him, with about 40% saying they voted to oppose the president versus about 13% who voted to support him.
  • Sherrill narrowly won independents, and voter-file analyses and exit polls indicate Democrats also captured a modest but meaningful share of 2024 Trump voters.