Overview
- Post‑election analyses show Democrats won roughly two‑thirds of Latino voters in New Jersey, reversing much of the GOP’s 2024 gains in key communities.
- Exit polls and voter files suggest Sherrill flipped about 7% of Trump’s 2024 supporters statewide, including an estimated 18% of his Hispanic backers, boosting her margin.
- Sherrill flipped multiple Trump‑carried counties from 2024—Morris, Passaic, Atlantic, Cumberland and Gloucester—and expanded Democratic margins in heavily diverse Hudson County.
- Economic concerns topped the issue list for Latino voters, while high‑profile ICE operations and aggressive enforcement messaging drew localized backlash cited in voter interviews and polling.
- Republicans publicly called the results a wake‑up call on nonwhite voters, even as some strategists argue the outcome also reflected unusually strong Democratic turnout and 2025‑specific dynamics.