Overview
- The July 17–23 Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 806 registered voters finds Sherrill at 45% support, Ciattarelli at 37% and 16% undecided.
- Ciattarelli’s emphasis on state-specific concerns such as housing and energy costs boosted his independent backing by seven points, while national issue questions eroded his nonpartisan support.
- Sherrill’s advantage has narrowed by 12 points since an early July Rutgers Eagleton survey gave her a 20-point lead over Ciattarelli.
- New Jersey’s electorate includes about 2.5 million registered Democrats, 1.6 million Republicans and a roughly equal number of unaffiliated voters.
- Political analysts view this off-year contest as a barometer of party strength ahead of the 2026 congressional midterm elections.