Overview

• Rutgers Eagleton’s latest survey shows Mikie Sherrill ahead of Jack Ciattarelli by about 9 points among likely voters after a summer of 5–6 point leads.
• The contest is widely viewed as an early gauge of voter sentiment heading into the 2026 midterms.
• Sherrill has pressed a message linking Ciattarelli to President Donald Trump and rolled out an affordability pitch that includes declaring a state of emergency to freeze electricity bills.
• Analysts say the race could tighten as the fall campaign begins, noting Ciattarelli’s near miss in 2021 and his efforts to court traditionally Democratic voters, including Black, Hispanic and Orthodox Jewish communities.
• New Jersey’s sizable Democratic registration advantage bolsters Sherrill, and experts do not expect a GOP legislative takeover, a dynamic Ciattarelli is likely to frame as a need for a Republican check on Trenton.