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14h ago

Sherrill Holds Slim Edge as Turnout Worries in Black and Hispanic Communities Jolt New Jersey Governor’s Race

Trump’s 2024 gains in nonwhite areas reshape the contest, elevating turnout as the deciding factor.

Voters cast ballots at at the Loudon County Office of Elections and Voter Registration in Leesburg, Virginia, on September 19, the first day of early voting in Virginia's gubernatorial election.
Winsome Earle-Sears speaks during a campaign event in Vienna, Virginia, on July 1.
Glenn Youngkin, alongside his staff and Sen. Ted Cruz, watch results come in on election night in Chantilly, Virginia, on November 2, 2021.

Overview

  • A Decision Desk HQ average shows Mikie Sherrill leading Jack Ciattarelli 49% to 44%, keeping the race competitive heading into early voting.
  • Democratic operatives and community leaders warn that weak participation among Black and Hispanic voters could erode Sherrill’s advantage, with calls for specific commitments on minority contracting and economic opportunity.
  • NBC News analysis finds President Trump sharply narrowed Democratic margins in majority-Hispanic and other nonwhite municipalities in 2024, while turnout in such areas historically drops more in gubernatorial years.
  • Both campaigns report intensified outreach to minority communities; Ciattarelli cites enthusiastic receptions and a handful of local cross-party endorsements, as Sherrill touts plans focused on affordability and small business growth.
  • One recent Quinnipiac survey cited an enthusiasm edge for Ciattarelli voters (55% very enthusiastic versus 42% for Sherrill), and on Fox News Sunday he voiced optimism, weighed a defamation suit over Sherrill’s opioid-related claim, and addressed the Gateway Project during the federal funding standoff.