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Sherrill Holds Razor-Thin Lead in New Jersey as Obama Rallies Newark

Democrats hold a sizable mail-in ballot lead as Trump stays off the trail.

Overview

  • Barack Obama drew large crowds Saturday in Norfolk and Newark, urging voters to back Democrats and condemning what he called President Trump's "lawlessness and recklessness."
  • An AtlasIntel poll conducted Oct. 25–30 shows Mikie Sherrill at 50.2% and Jack Ciattarelli at 49.3%, a result within the survey’s 2-point margin of error.
  • Decision Desk HQ reports Democrats have roughly a 221,000 raw advantage in returned mail ballots in New Jersey, along with a small early in‑person edge.
  • Trump has endorsed Ciattarelli and held an Oct. 24 tele‑rally but did not appear in person during the final weekend.
  • National figures including several Democratic governors and Pete Buttigieg have campaigned in the state as the race centers on turnout and issues such as affordability and funding for the Gateway rail tunnel.