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Sherrill Holds Eight-Point Lead Over Ciattarelli in New Jersey Governor Race

Strong party loyalty anchors the race in a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll that reflects independent voters divided by local versus national issue framing.

Representative Mikie Sherrill speaks to reporters on August 24, 2021 in Washington, D.C.
Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill
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Overview

  • A Fairleigh Dickinson University survey conducted July 17–23 among 806 registered voters shows Rep. Mikie Sherrill at 45% and Jack Ciattarelli at 37%, with 16% undecided and a 3.4-point margin of error.
  • The poll finds 87% of Democrats supporting Sherrill and 86% of Republicans backing Ciattarelli, underscoring near-total partisan alignment.
  • Ciattarelli gains 7 points among independents when respondents are asked about state-level issues, but his support drops by 4 points under a national issue framing.
  • Sherrill’s advantage has narrowed significantly from a 20-point lead in a Rutgers Eagleton poll earlier this month to the current single-digit margin.
  • New Jersey’s November 4, 2025, off-year gubernatorial contest is viewed by analysts as an early bellwether for voter sentiment heading into the 2026 midterms.