Overview

• A Fairleigh Dickinson University survey conducted July 17–23 among 806 registered voters shows Rep. Mikie Sherrill at 45% and Jack Ciattarelli at 37%, with 16% undecided and a 3.4-point margin of error.
• The poll finds 87% of Democrats supporting Sherrill and 86% of Republicans backing Ciattarelli, underscoring near-total partisan alignment.
• Ciattarelli gains 7 points among independents when respondents are asked about state-level issues, but his support drops by 4 points under a national issue framing.
• Sherrill’s advantage has narrowed significantly from a 20-point lead in a Rutgers Eagleton poll earlier this month to the current single-digit margin.
• New Jersey’s November 4, 2025, off-year gubernatorial contest is viewed by analysts as an early bellwether for voter sentiment heading into the 2026 midterms.