Shell Sees Q4 Output Up, Warns on Downstream as Shares Slip in London

Shares fell after Shell signaled seasonal pressures with non-cash tax adjustments weighing on downstream results.

Overview

Shell estimates Q4 2025 upstream production at 1.84–1.94 million boe/d, above Q3’s 1.83 million boe/d.
The production range already reflects consolidation of the UK Adura joint venture.
Marketing adjusted earnings are expected to be weaker due to seasonality and a deferred-tax adjustment linked to Adura, coming in below the prior-year quarter.
The Chemicals & Products division is forecast to post a material adjusted loss below breakeven as margins weakened and a non-cash deferred-tax item reduced reported results.
Shell shares were down about 2.39% in early London trade, based on prices around 8:15 a.m. Brasília time.