Overview
- Official data show net migration at 204,000 in the year to June 2025, well below the OBR’s November forecast of 262,000 and far from the 2023 peak of about 944,000.
- Economists warn that a drop to near zero or negative this year could open a multi‑billion‑pound gap in the public finances and push the Chancellor to consider tax rises; the OBR has estimated a sustained 200,000 reduction could cost around £20bn by decade’s end.
- Three forces are cited for the decline: fewer work visas after tighter rules cut skilled routes by a third and health and social care visas by half, tougher ILR timelines announced by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and the expiry of a large cohort of graduate visas.
- University of Warwick analyst James Bowes estimates ILR changes could prompt about 70,000 departures and that combined effects might take net migration to roughly negative 62,000 by year‑end.
- Uncertainty remains as the OBR said it lacked sufficient detail to model ILR changes, the Migration Observatory puts net‑zero migration at about a 10% chance with a 100,000–200,000 short‑run fall more likely, and the government says the UK remains attractive.